Cum să profitați de factorii de bază care conduc creșterea în categoria în curs de dezvoltare a băuturilor lactate

In the "big plate, high growth" category, the core question we think about is: How does this market make money? Will there be game-changing changes in the factors driving past growth, or will it continue to support the growth of this category? Are there any pain points in the products currently provided to users? Are users willing to pay a premium for these pain points? Can these pain points be resolved? Are there market segments and non-mainstream markets with extremely obvious ceilings that can be reached? We will disassemble yogurt into two lines of room temperature yogurt and low temperature yogurt. The core of the growth of room temperature yogurt comes from the increase in penetration rate. If we look at the distribution channels and scale of white milk, we believe that room temperature yogurt will penetrate into third- and fourth-tier cities. The core growth point is to squeeze the market share of room temperature lactic acid beverages, white milk, and colorful milk (from consumer insights, consumers Among the above four categories, the preference for room temperature yogurt is relatively high). The penetration rate of room temperature yogurt will rise to the point where it cannot meet the demand for return on capital, but we believe that the growth of room temperature yogurt is indeed slowing down. In the low-temperature yogurt category, we use Tesla's Elon Musk's "first principles" to help us think about the key factors that affect the end of low-temperature yogurt. We believe that three variables will drive the growth of low-temperature yogurt. More specifically, you can Look at "How to estimate the market size, the low-temperature yogurt market will not be less than 25 billion." Dairy companies' demand for low-temperature dairy products to increase profitability. Consumers' demand for low-temperature products. The retail terminal growth rate. The most critical variable here is the supply chain. The "retail terminal growth rate" promoted, under the premise that single-store sales (PSD) will not produce qualitative changes, rely on channel sinking to increase sales two sub-questions: how many retail terminals can support the sale of low-temperature products? Give priority to spreading deeper in cities with cold chain systems? Or spread to cities without cold chain systems? Only convenience stores upgrade to traditional mom-and-pop convenience stores. A large number of mom-and-pop stores are standardized. After the cold chain, brand owners can control the input-output ratio, and low-temperature dairy products can truly complete the channel sinking. Otherwise, brand owners still need to rely on large Stores and self-operated channels are driving growth. While channel providers continue to increase the proportion of their own brands, the key to controlling their own channels is to achieve growth through online and offline non-mainstream channels. We believe that in the next year, the traffic dividend will come from offline, and only Only by creating a good enough experience and communicating with users online can a sufficiently high brand potential flow to the online. In addition to the penetration rate of the cold chain, based on Mengniu Yili's 8-10 percent of warehousing logistics costs, this key proposition is whether there is room for further reduction of these variables in the next 3-5 years, and even To C logistics warehousing costs will be reduced To the order of To B? Warehousing logistics costs = packaging costs plus warehousing costs plus trunk logistics costs plus branch logistics costs. The expected cost reduction comes from the reverse promotion of warehousing construction by fresh food e-commerce companies and the increase in inventory turnover rate brought about by the digitalization of the supply chain. And we think we can bet that the large-scale commercialization of collaborative robots and drones may greatly reduce packaging and feeder logistics costs, so that some To C brands do not rely on channel providers, and while obtaining higher gross profit, Able to complete batch distribution of products, and ultimately gain channel advantages. Unlike other categories that have already spread to the corners of the corner, they can only achieve growth by increasing the repurchase rate and customer unit price (so-called consumption upgrade). Low-temperature yogurt can only rely on increasing the penetration rate and the resulting scale effect. Win growth.